Insight | Ukraine War Scenarios and Georgia

The first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine looms, and reports of the Kremlin preparing a major offensive abound. The war continues to reshape global geopolitics. The Georgian Institute of Politics (GIP) reviewed its previous assessments concerning the potential short-term scenarios and offers insights into the possible impact each of them may have on Georgia. The full version of the scenarios paper is available through the GIP website here. This is the collaborative summary by the Civil.ge team based on the GIP product. We identify the scenarios of the "War of Attrition" and "Conflict (re)frozen" as the most likely in the short-term, although Ukraine's victory is also probable. Press the scenario title tab to view content.